The best indicator for Casey's (CASY)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Casey's (CASY) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted, out-of-sample, with costs.
Markov Regime
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Casey's (CASY) over ~42.6 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.6% CAGR.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Casey's (CASY) — trailing buy-and-hold by 12.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Markov Regime ✓ | Daily | 20.6% | 0.77 | -74.4% | 63.3% | 414 | 3.6% |
| 2 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 17.6% | 0.66 | -64.5% | 46.7% | 15 | 0.6% |
| 3 | Projection Bands ✓ | Weekly | 9.9% | 0.66 | -27.6% | 77.3% | 66 | -7.3% |
| 4 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 11.3% | 0.65 | -53.0% | 82.6% | 109 | -5.7% |
| 5 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 11.5% | 0.64 | -65.9% | 66.2% | 287 | -5.6% |
| 6 | MA Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 10.5% | 0.63 | -54.0% | 72.0% | 93 | -6.6% |
| 7 | SMC: Liquidity Sweep ✓ | Daily | 13.0% | 0.63 | -74.7% | 75.3% | 150 | -4.1% |
| 8 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 11.8% | 0.61 | -64.6% | 72.5% | 167 | -5.2% |
| 9 | VIDYA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 15.6% | 0.61 | -64.0% | 46.2% | 26 | -1.5% |
| 10 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Weekly | 8.8% | 0.61 | -36.7% | 73.6% | 91 | -8.3% |
| 11 | Connors RSI ✓ | Weekly | 9.5% | 0.61 | -52.3% | 73.7% | 99 | -7.7% |
| 12 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 13.5% | 0.6 | -56.9% | 53.3% | 15 | -3.6% |
| 13 | EMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 13.7% | 0.6 | -57.1% | 53.3% | 15 | -3.5% |
| 14 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 9.4% | 0.58 | -57.1% | 76.9% | 65 | -7.6% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
For Casey's (CASY), Markov Regime on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
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