The best indicator for Casey's (CASY)
We backtested 382 indicators across daily, weekly and hourly charts on real Casey's (CASY) history. Here's what actually worked — risk-adjusted over the full backtest, with costs, and checked out-of-sample.
Where Casey's (CASY) stands
Computed from our own daily OHLCV history, not quoted from a third party. Moving averages use closing prices; "52-week" is the last 252 trading sessions.
Markov Regime
On the daily chart, this is the strongest risk-adjusted edge we found for Casey's (CASY) over ~42.9 years — beating buy-and-hold by 3.5% CAGR.
Casey's (CASY) on the daily chart
The timeframe our backtest found best for this asset. The chart is live market data; the results above are hypothetical and historical.
Chart by TradingView. Loading it contacts tradingview.com, which may set its own cookies — see our privacy policy.
Best multi-indicator combo
Going long only when all 2 agree was the strongest confluence setup we found for Casey's (CASY) — trailing buy-and-hold by 12.3% CAGR, out-of-sample. Fewer, higher-conviction trades than any single indicator.
The winner on each chart
Every indicator, ranked
Ranked by Sharpe (risk-adjusted return). Hypothetical, fees included.
| # | Indicator | TF | CAGR | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | vs B&H |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Markov Regime ✓ | Daily | 19.8% | 0.75 | -74.4% | 63.3% | 417 | 3.5% |
| 2 | SMC: Liquidity Sweep ✓ | Daily | 13.2% | 0.65 | -72.3% | 76.2% | 143 | -3.0% |
| 3 | McGinley 100 Trend ✓ | Daily | 16.8% | 0.64 | -64.5% | 46.7% | 15 | 0.5% |
| 4 | Murrey Math Lines ✓ | Daily | 10.8% | 0.63 | -48.1% | 81.1% | 111 | -5.4% |
| 5 | MA Envelope ✓ | Daily | 11.2% | 0.62 | -65.9% | 66.4% | 289 | -5.0% |
| 6 | Connors RSI-2 ✓ | Weekly | 8.8% | 0.6 | -36.7% | 74.5% | 94 | -7.6% |
| 7 | WaveTrend (8/6/4) ✓ | Daily | 11.4% | 0.59 | -64.6% | 72.8% | 169 | -4.8% |
| 8 | VIDYA 200 Trend ✓ | Daily | 14.8% | 0.59 | -64.0% | 46.2% | 26 | -1.4% |
| 9 | MA Envelope ✓ | Weekly | 9.9% | 0.59 | -54.0% | 71.3% | 94 | -6.5% |
| 10 | Connors RSI ✓ | Weekly | 9.1% | 0.58 | -51.4% | 76.8% | 99 | -7.2% |
| 11 | Projection Bands ✓ | Weekly | 8.7% | 0.58 | -41.5% | 78.8% | 66 | -7.7% |
| 12 | EMA 15/60 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 13.0% | 0.58 | -57.1% | 53.3% | 15 | -3.4% |
| 13 | EMA 20/50 Cross ✓ | Weekly | 12.8% | 0.57 | -56.9% | 53.3% | 15 | -3.6% |
| 14 | Holy Grail Confluence ✓ | Daily | 8.7% | 0.55 | -57.1% | 75.8% | 66 | -7.5% |
✓ = held up out-of-sample. Hypothetical, costs included. See methodology.
What it would take to beat buy & hold on Casey's (CASY)
1 of 688 tested setups beat buy-and-hold on Casey's (CASY) outright. Another 203 could get there with leverage they would survive — but 297 would be liquidated by their own drawdown before they caught it.
| Indicator | Beats B&H unlevered | Leverage needed | Leverage survived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Markov Regime | 1 | 1.27× | 3.1× |
| QQE | — | 1.35× | 3.09× |
| WMA 200 Trend | — | 1.52× | 3.11× |
| Connors RSI | — | 1.67× | 4.96× |
| Camarilla Pivots | — | 1.67× | 3.65× |
| Markov Regime (Confirmed) | — | 1.67× | 3.49× |
Out-of-sample, costs included. A setup is only listed if the leverage it needs is less than the leverage its own worst drawdown survives — when it isn't, no amount of leverage gets there. Volatility drag isn't modelled, so these are the optimistic case. Every indicator, ranked this way
For Casey's (CASY), Markov Regime on the daily timeframe gave the best balance of return and risk in our test. It beat buy-and-hold — but remember: this is a hypothetical backtest of a standard rule, not a recommendation. Markets change. See the methodology and disclaimer.
More stock
Get alerted when Casey's’s signal flips
We track Casey's daily. Its backtested best indicator, Markov Regime (Daily), is flat right now — we'll email you the moment that changes. Free, no spam, unsubscribe any time.