Does anything beat buy & hold on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)?
Every setup we tested on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) — ranked out-of-sample, corrected for multiple testing, and forward-tracked in public from the day this page published. The honest answer is the headline.
No setup beat simply holding once tested honestly. We say so plainly.
Its best setup only beat buy-and-hold in one window — a regime artifact, not a strategy. Buy-and-hold benchmark: +21.7% CAGR over 2.9 years (-14.7% CAGR in the out-of-sample window).
Educational research from historical backtests — not investment advice. Past performance does not predict future results.
TSLA: we tested 1,484 setups and none beat simply holding Tesla, Inc.
For Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), we ran 1,484 indicator configurations against a plain buy-and-hold benchmark, and none of them earned the right to replace it. Individual stocks carry idiosyncratic risk — earnings surprises, guidance changes, sector rotation — that indicators built on price history cannot see coming. The best-looking setup, Markov Regime (Confirmed) on the 1-hour timeframe, ranked at the top in-sample but delivered an out-of-sample Sharpe of 2.19, short of our hurdle of 4.03. Buy-and-hold returned +21.7% annualized over the test period; the top strategies mostly captured pieces of that same move while adding trading friction.
How to read this honestly: when you test 1,484 setups and keep the best one, something will always look impressive by chance alone. That is why we require the survivor to clear 4.03 out of sample. Markov Regime (Confirmed) managed 2.19, with out-of-sample alpha of +53.0% across 0.9 years and 122 trades, and only 42.5% of everything we tested beat the benchmark on unseen data — roughly what luck would produce. None of this predicts anything: the regime that generated these numbers can shift, and single stocks shift faster than most. Treat this page as a record of what failed under honest testing, not a forecast.
Every figure above is computed from our own backtests — nothing is estimated or invented. Hypothetical results; not investment advice.
The least-bad setups — shown with their failure numbers
Nothing here earned a verdict — these are the best of a losing field, published so you can see exactly how "best" still failed.
Markov Regime (Confirmed)
What it is: A statistical regime model: it estimates which market regime is in force and holds only while the odds favour the bullish one. Long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting. The parameters we tested are not published.
How it was tested: signals evaluated at 1-hour-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side. Same engine, same cost model, same out-of-sample split as every other number on this site.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 2.19 · alpha +53.0% · 49 trades over 0.9 yrs.
Order-Flow Reversion
What it is: An order-flow / liquidity model: it reads signed volume to judge whether buyers or sellers are actually being absorbed. Long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting. The parameters we tested are not published.
How it was tested: signals evaluated at 1-hour-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side. Same engine, same cost model, same out-of-sample split as every other number on this site.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 1.86 · alpha +61.2% · 25 trades over 0.9 yrs.
Nadaraya-Watson Envelope
What it is: A channel / envelope rule: it measures how far price has travelled from a moving reference and acts at the extremes. Long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting. The parameters we tested are not published.
How it was tested: signals evaluated at 1-hour-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side. Same engine, same cost model, same out-of-sample split as every other number on this site.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 1.47 · alpha +34.3% · 10 trades over 0.9 yrs.
Since publication — including if it loses
The setup is ahead so far — over a window this short that is mostly noise. Marked to market nightly from real prices, rules frozen at publication, as of 2026-10-23. Currently FLAT.
We tested 1,484 setups (indicator × parameters × timeframe) on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA). Only setups with ≥30 trades qualify (1,255 did). Setups are ranked by out-of-sample Sharpe — the last ~30% of history, which standard-parameter rules never saw during selection. Because picking the best of 1,484 tries mines even the holdout, the VALIDATED verdict additionally requires the top setup’s OOS Sharpe to clear a selection hurdle of 4.03 (√(2 ln N)/√T) AND positive alpha in both windows. Of the eligible setups, 42.5% had positive out-of-sample alpha (median OOS Sharpe -0.15) — the table below is truncated, but this summary covers all of them. How we test: methodology. The scoring contract is published in full; the parameters of each individual setup are not.
Top 20 of 1,255 eligible setups
Ranked by out-of-sample Sharpe. Full + out-of-sample columns, costs included. Hypothetical.
| # | Setup | TF | Total ret | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | α vs B&H | OOS Sharpe | OOS α | OOS trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Markov Regime (Confirmed) | 1-Hour | -16.5% | -0.3 | -48.5% | 40.2% | 122 | -27.8% | 2.19 | +53.0% | 49 |
| 2 | Order-Flow Reversion | 1-Hour | +73.3% | 0.81 | -27.6% | 72.6% | 73 | -0.7% | 1.86 | +61.2% | 25 |
| 3 | Nadaraya-Watson Envelope | 1-Hour | +18.5% | 0.44 | -22.0% | 62.5% | 32 | -15.7% | 1.47 | +34.3% | 10 |
| 4 | Bollinger Squeeze | 1-Hour | -5.0% | -0.01 | -27.7% | 26.2% | 42 | -23.5% | 1.45 | +41.6% | 14 |
| 5 | MA Envelope | 1-Hour | +59.3% | 0.7 | -36.9% | 66.7% | 90 | -4.2% | 1.44 | +50.4% | 28 |
| 6 | Bullish Marubozu | 1-Hour | +4.0% | 0.17 | -25.3% | 47.4% | 95 | -20.4% | 1.31 | +32.7% | 27 |
| 7 | VWAP Bands | 1-Hour | +22.4% | 0.38 | -36.2% | 66.7% | 81 | -14.5% | 1.3 | +45.8% | 27 |
| 8 | Morning Star | 1-Hour | -20.3% | -0.23 | -47.1% | 45.9% | 183 | -29.3% | 1.27 | +42.7% | 55 |
| 9 | Bollinger Mean-Reversion | 1-Hour | +63.8% | 0.74 | -27.6% | 69.5% | 82 | -3.0% | 1.22 | +41.5% | 25 |
| 10 | Fibonacci Bands | 1-Hour | +63.8% | 0.74 | -27.6% | 69.5% | 82 | -3.0% | 1.22 | +41.5% | 25 |
| 11 | Laguerre RSI | Weekly | +456.0% | 0.66 | -28.6% | 75.0% | 32 | -30.5% | 1.2 | +19.5% | 12 |
| 12 | Tweezer Bottom | Daily | +276.0% | 0.56 | -37.7% | 50.0% | 86 | -31.0% | 1.12 | +18.2% | 21 |
| 13 | Tweezer Bottom | 4-Hour | +0.8% | 0.1 | -34.0% | 33.8% | 74 | -15.6% | 1.11 | +31.2% | 23 |
| 14 | Choppiness Index | Daily | +900.6% | 0.74 | -55.7% | 50.0% | 96 | -24.3% | 1.11 | +23.0% | 20 |
| 15 | Bullish Engulfing | 4-Hour | -8.6% | -0.01 | -26.5% | 50.0% | 54 | -18.1% | 1.04 | +27.0% | 19 |
| 16 | Keltner Mean-Reversion | 1-Hour | +122.2% | 1.13 | -23.2% | 69.6% | 79 | +10.3% | 1.0 | +36.0% | 26 |
| 17 | Murrey Math Lines | 1-Hour | -12.8% | 0.05 | -53.8% | 70.0% | 50 | -26.4% | 0.96 | +43.4% | 21 |
| 18 | Gator Oscillator | Daily | +950.6% | 0.83 | -39.5% | 52.1% | 240 | -23.9% | 0.96 | +16.1% | 57 |
| 19 | Bandpass Oscillator | Daily | >+999% | 0.94 | -69.3% | 43.2% | 185 | -4.2% | 0.9 | +30.9% | 52 |
| 20 | Std Error Channel | Daily | >+999% | 0.95 | -65.5% | 39.1% | 169 | -6.0% | 0.9 | +28.4% | 44 |
Hypothetical backtests with 0.08%/side costs. Not investment advice — see the full disclaimer.
These are historical backtests of mechanical rules. They are educational research, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not tailored to you. Educational information only — not investment advice. Hypothetical backtested results; past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves risk of loss.