Does anything beat buy & hold on Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL)?
Every setup we tested on Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) — ranked out-of-sample, corrected for multiple testing, and forward-tracked in public from the day this page published. The honest answer is the headline.
Beat buy-and-hold out-of-sample AND cleared the multiple-testing hurdle.
Beat buy-and-hold out-of-sample AND full-sample out-of-sample Sharpe 1.35 cleared the selection hurdle 0.97. Buy-and-hold benchmark: +15.0% CAGR over 46.5 years (+34.3% CAGR in the out-of-sample window).
Educational research from historical backtests — not investment advice. Past performance does not predict future results.
Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL): One Setup Cleared the Bar — What That Does and Doesn't Mean
A validated verdict on an individual stock is rare, and it should be. Single companies are earnings-driven and idiosyncratic: one guidance cut or CEO exit can swamp any technical signal. We ran 758 indicator setups on Texas Pacific Land Corporation, of which 718 had enough history to qualify. Most stocks in our universe produce nothing that beats simply holding shares. Here, Hull Suite on the daily timeframe outperformed buy-and-hold in both the full window and the held-out period, and its out-of-sample Sharpe of 1.35 cleared the multiple-testing hurdle of 0.97. A signal that survived 14.0 years of company-specific noise is worth documenting.
Read this as a record, not a promise. Out-of-sample alpha of +8.7% (full-window +2.5%) against a buy-and-hold CAGR of +15.0% came with a win rate of 44.6%, a maximum drawdown of -44.3%, and 258 trades — enough to measure, few enough that a handful of outcomes shaped the result. Only 18.1% of setups beat holding at all, so selection pressure is real even after the hurdle. Note the survivorship trap: TPL exists today to be tested; delisted peers don't. Companies change, regimes change, and past validation does not predict future results.
Every figure above is computed from our own backtests — nothing is estimated or invented. Hypothetical results; not investment advice.
The setups that ranked, and what they are
Fully mechanical — no discretionary steps, no hidden filters. We name the indicator and publish its record; we keep the settings.
Hull Suite
What it is: A trend-following rule: it holds while a smoothed trend reference is pointing up and goes flat when it turns. Long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting. The parameters we tested are not published.
How it was tested: signals evaluated at daily-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side. Same engine, same cost model, same out-of-sample split as every other number on this site.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 1.35 · alpha +8.7% · 72 trades over 14.0 yrs.
KAMA 10/30 Cross
What it is: A trend-following rule: it holds while a smoothed trend reference is pointing up and goes flat when it turns. Long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting. The parameters we tested are not published.
How it was tested: signals evaluated at daily-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side. Same engine, same cost model, same out-of-sample split as every other number on this site.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 1.35 · alpha +7.2% · 46 trades over 14.0 yrs.
Guppy Multiple MA
What it is: A trend-following rule: it holds while a smoothed trend reference is pointing up and goes flat when it turns. Long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting. The parameters we tested are not published.
How it was tested: signals evaluated at daily-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side. Same engine, same cost model, same out-of-sample split as every other number on this site.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 1.31 · alpha +9.1% · 43 trades over 14.0 yrs.
Since publication — including if it loses
The setup is ahead so far — over a window this short that is mostly noise. Marked to market nightly from real prices, rules frozen at publication, as of 2026-10-23. Currently FLAT.
We tested 758 setups (indicator × parameters × timeframe) on Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL). Only setups with ≥30 trades qualify (718 did). Setups are ranked by out-of-sample Sharpe — the last ~30% of history, which standard-parameter rules never saw during selection. Because picking the best of 758 tries mines even the holdout, the VALIDATED verdict additionally requires the top setup’s OOS Sharpe to clear a selection hurdle of 0.97 (√(2 ln N)/√T) AND positive alpha in both windows. Of the eligible setups, 18.1% had positive out-of-sample alpha (median OOS Sharpe 0.92) — the table below is truncated, but this summary covers all of them. How we test: methodology. The scoring contract is published in full; the parameters of each individual setup are not.
Top 20 of 718 eligible setups
Ranked by out-of-sample Sharpe. Full + out-of-sample columns, costs included. Hypothetical.
| # | Setup | TF | Total ret | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | α vs B&H | OOS Sharpe | OOS α | OOS trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hull Suite | Daily | >+999% | 0.81 | -44.3% | 44.6% | 258 | +2.5% | 1.35 | +8.7% | 72 |
| 2 | KAMA 10/30 Cross | Daily | >+999% | 0.74 | -50.4% | 47.4% | 171 | +0.5% | 1.35 | +7.2% | 46 |
| 3 | Guppy Multiple MA | Daily | >+999% | 0.81 | -54.1% | 38.4% | 177 | +3.3% | 1.31 | +9.1% | 43 |
| 4 | Pivot Point SuperTrend | Daily | >+999% | 0.81 | -53.3% | 46.4% | 112 | +3.5% | 1.29 | +8.7% | 20 |
| 5 | Trend Magic | Weekly | >+999% | 0.77 | -54.1% | 47.3% | 129 | +2.9% | 1.28 | +8.7% | 32 |
| 6 | RSI (7) | Weekly | >+999% | 0.7 | -51.2% | 49.4% | 168 | +0.6% | 1.27 | +7.8% | 40 |
| 7 | Elder Bull Power | Weekly | >+999% | 0.73 | -51.2% | 49.7% | 167 | +1.7% | 1.27 | +7.8% | 40 |
| 8 | KDJ | Weekly | >+999% | 0.72 | -35.9% | 49.5% | 222 | +0.5% | 1.27 | +4.3% | 62 |
| 9 | Fractal Adaptive MA | Weekly | >+999% | 0.74 | -36.3% | 47.4% | 270 | -0.4% | 1.27 | -0.4% | 80 |
| 10 | Regularized EMA | Weekly | >+999% | 0.79 | -45.6% | 51.1% | 139 | +3.2% | 1.26 | +7.1% | 35 |
| 11 | Adaptive Supertrend | Weekly | >+999% | 0.72 | -49.9% | 47.9% | 73 | +1.6% | 1.25 | +8.2% | 14 |
| 12 | Relative Volatility Index | Daily | >+999% | 0.82 | -47.8% | 43.9% | 631 | +3.1% | 1.25 | +7.1% | 165 |
| 13 | ROC (60) | Daily | >+999% | 0.8 | -56.3% | 38.0% | 258 | +3.2% | 1.25 | +6.9% | 64 |
| 14 | Gaussian Channel | Weekly | >+999% | 0.77 | -37.7% | 52.9% | 153 | +2.8% | 1.25 | +6.5% | 40 |
| 15 | WMA 15/60 Cross | Daily | >+999% | 0.82 | -54.9% | 46.2% | 145 | +3.6% | 1.25 | +6.0% | 38 |
| 16 | Supertrend (7,3) | Daily | >+999% | 0.72 | -69.4% | 44.4% | 216 | +0.3% | 1.25 | +4.5% | 41 |
| 17 | Keltner Breakout | Daily | >+999% | 0.81 | -39.7% | 45.2% | 177 | -0.6% | 1.25 | -4.7% | 42 |
| 18 | SMC: Fair Value Gap | Weekly | >+999% | 0.64 | -75.5% | 48.3% | 118 | -0.7% | 1.24 | +9.1% | 25 |
| 19 | Supertrend Fast (10,2) | Weekly | >+999% | 0.73 | -60.2% | 56.1% | 57 | +1.7% | 1.24 | +7.5% | 14 |
| 20 | Supertrend (10,2) | Weekly | >+999% | 0.73 | -60.2% | 56.1% | 57 | +1.7% | 1.24 | +7.5% | 14 |
Hypothetical backtests with 0.08%/side costs. Not investment advice — see the full disclaimer.
These are historical backtests of mechanical rules. They are educational research, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not tailored to you. Educational information only — not investment advice. Hypothetical backtested results; past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves risk of loss.