Does anything beat buy & hold on Micron Technology (MU)?
Every setup we tested on Micron Technology (MU) — ranked out-of-sample, corrected for multiple testing, and forward-tracked in public from the day this page published. The honest answer is the headline.
Beat buy-and-hold out-of-sample AND cleared the multiple-testing hurdle.
Beat buy-and-hold out-of-sample AND full-sample out-of-sample Sharpe 1.21 cleared the selection hurdle 1.02. Buy-and-hold benchmark: +16.6% CAGR over 42.2 years (+36.3% CAGR in the out-of-sample window).
Educational research from historical backtests — not investment advice. Past performance does not predict future results.
Micron Technology (MU): One Setup Cleared the Bar — What That Does and Doesn't Mean
A validated verdict on an individual stock is rare, and it should be. Single companies are earnings-driven and idiosyncratic: one guidance cut or CEO exit can swamp any technical signal. We ran 761 indicator setups on Micron Technology, of which 702 had enough history to qualify. Most stocks in our universe produce nothing that beats simply holding shares. Here, SMC: Order Block on the weekly timeframe outperformed buy-and-hold in both the full window and the held-out period, and its out-of-sample Sharpe of 1.21 cleared the multiple-testing hurdle of 1.02. A signal that survived 12.7 years of company-specific noise is worth documenting.
Read this as a record, not a promise. Out-of-sample alpha of +9.4% (full-window +2.4%) against a buy-and-hold CAGR of +16.6% came with a win rate of 43.5%, a maximum drawdown of -83.7%, and 46 trades — enough to measure, few enough that a handful of outcomes shaped the result. Only 6.3% of setups beat holding at all, so selection pressure is real even after the hurdle. Note the survivorship trap: MU exists today to be tested; delisted peers don't. Companies change, regimes change, and past validation does not predict future results.
Every figure above is computed from our own backtests — nothing is estimated or invented. Hypothetical results; not investment advice.
Top setups as mechanical rules
Exactly as the backtest defined them — no discretionary steps, no hidden filters.
SMC: Order Block
Mechanical rule (exactly as backtested): Marks the last down-candle before a bullish break of structure; long while price holds above that order block. Signals are evaluated at weekly-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side, long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 1.21 · alpha +9.4% · 11 trades over 12.7 yrs.
TRIMA 200 Trend
Mechanical rule (exactly as backtested): VARIANT — price above a rising TRIMA(200). Signals are evaluated at daily-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side, long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 1.14 · alpha +3.2% · 19 trades over 12.6 yrs.
SMA 30 Trend
Mechanical rule (exactly as backtested): VARIANT — price above a rising SMA(30). Signals are evaluated at weekly-bar close, the position changes on the NEXT bar, 0.08% cost per side, long/flat only — no leverage, no shorting.
Out-of-sample (last ~30% of the window, never used to pick this setup): Sharpe 1.13 · alpha +4.2% · 14 trades over 12.7 yrs.
Since publication — including if it loses
The forward record is just getting started — the gap between the two is the honest score. Marked to market nightly from real prices, rules frozen at publication, as of 2026-06-29. Currently LONG.
We tested 761 setups (indicator × parameters × timeframe) on Micron Technology (MU). Only setups with ≥30 trades qualify (702 did). Setups are ranked by out-of-sample Sharpe — the last ~30% of history, which standard-parameter rules never saw during selection. Because picking the best of 761 tries mines even the holdout, the VALIDATED verdict additionally requires the top setup’s OOS Sharpe to clear a selection hurdle of 1.02 (√(2 ln N)/√T) AND positive alpha in both windows. Of the eligible setups, 6.3% had positive out-of-sample alpha (median OOS Sharpe 0.66) — the table below is truncated, but this summary covers all of them. Full recipe: methodology · the engine’s contract lives in the repo as STRATEGY_METHODOLOGY.md.
Top 20 of 702 eligible setups
Ranked by out-of-sample Sharpe. Full + out-of-sample columns, costs included. Hypothetical.
| # | Setup | TF | Total ret | Sharpe | Max DD | Win | Trades | α vs B&H | OOS Sharpe | OOS α | OOS trades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SMC: Order Block | Weekly | >+999% | 0.64 | -83.7% | 43.5% | 46 | +2.4% | 1.21 | +9.4% | 11 |
| 2 | TRIMA 200 Trend | Daily | >+999% | 0.59 | -82.7% | 30.4% | 69 | -0.8% | 1.14 | +3.2% | 19 |
| 3 | SMA 30 Trend | Weekly | >+999% | 0.63 | -65.2% | 50.7% | 67 | +1.1% | 1.13 | +4.2% | 14 |
| 4 | ROC (30) | Weekly | >+999% | 0.58 | -80.1% | 48.4% | 62 | -0.3% | 1.12 | +6.9% | 13 |
| 5 | CMO (30) | Weekly | >+999% | 0.58 | -80.1% | 48.4% | 62 | -0.3% | 1.12 | +6.9% | 13 |
| 6 | Momentum (30) | Weekly | >+999% | 0.58 | -80.1% | 48.4% | 62 | -0.3% | 1.12 | +6.9% | 13 |
| 7 | Ehlers TrendFlex | Weekly | >+999% | 0.63 | -82.4% | 47.4% | 38 | +2.8% | 1.11 | +5.5% | 10 |
| 8 | Williams %R (28) | Weekly | >+999% | 0.61 | -87.2% | 41.9% | 86 | +1.0% | 1.11 | +4.5% | 23 |
| 9 | T3 8/21 Cross | Weekly | >+999% | 0.55 | -91.2% | 50.0% | 38 | -1.4% | 1.1 | +5.6% | 12 |
| 10 | Ichimoku TK Cross | Weekly | >+999% | 0.63 | -91.3% | 42.5% | 40 | +2.4% | 1.1 | +5.1% | 12 |
| 11 | T3 100 Trend | Daily | >+999% | 0.7 | -66.9% | 42.7% | 89 | +3.5% | 1.1 | -0.1% | 28 |
| 12 | Chaikin Volatility | Weekly | >+999% | 0.56 | -67.3% | 52.1% | 119 | -2.5% | 1.09 | -1.9% | 44 |
| 13 | Ehlers Stochastic | Weekly | >+999% | 0.64 | -78.2% | 48.8% | 41 | +2.9% | 1.07 | +3.8% | 11 |
| 14 | ROC (20) | Weekly | >+999% | 0.59 | -73.5% | 46.9% | 81 | +0.4% | 1.07 | +3.4% | 24 |
| 15 | Momentum (20) | Weekly | >+999% | 0.59 | -73.5% | 46.9% | 81 | +0.4% | 1.07 | +3.4% | 24 |
| 16 | VIDYA 10/30 Cross | Daily | >+999% | 0.63 | -76.8% | 35.6% | 45 | +2.4% | 1.07 | +1.6% | 11 |
| 17 | Geometric MA | Weekly | >+999% | 0.65 | -69.4% | 46.7% | 90 | +2.3% | 1.07 | +0.8% | 27 |
| 18 | Std Error Channel | Weekly | >+999% | 0.68 | -70.3% | 50.0% | 72 | +4.2% | 1.07 | +0.6% | 20 |
| 19 | Cascade Z-Score | Weekly | >+999% | 0.64 | -67.3% | 53.3% | 60 | +2.2% | 1.07 | +0.2% | 17 |
| 20 | DEMA 200 Trend | Daily | >+999% | 0.71 | -71.4% | 35.6% | 239 | +5.1% | 1.07 | -1.7% | 72 |
Hypothetical backtests with 0.08%/side costs. Not investment advice — see the full disclaimer.
These are historical backtests of mechanical rules. They are educational research, not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not tailored to you. Educational information only — not investment advice. Hypothetical backtested results; past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves risk of loss.