Mansfield Relative Strength: The Stage-Analysis Indicator, Explained and Tested
Stan Weinstein's relative-strength chart is back in circulation — here's what the evidence actually says about whether it generates edge.
What Mansfield Relative Strength Actually Is
Stan Weinstein introduced relative strength as the comparative backbone of his four-stage market framework in his 1988 book. The indicator measures how a stock is performing against a benchmark — typically the S&P 500 — over a trailing 52-week window, then plots that comparison as a histogram oscillating around zero. Above zero means the stock is outperforming the index; below zero means it is lagging.
This is not the same as the Relative Strength Index (RSI). RSI compares a security's recent gains to its own recent losses — it is an internal momentum measure. Mansfield RS is purely comparative: one stock versus the broader market. Weinstein used it as confirmation, not as a trigger. He wanted stocks already in a Stage 2 advance — rising price, above a 30-week moving average — to also show positive Mansfield RS, signalling they were leading the market, not just riding it.
The Intuitive Appeal — and the Gap Between Filter and Signal
The logic is straightforward: if you are going to hold something, hold what is already beating the market. Leaders in a bull phase tend to keep leading; laggards tend to keep lagging. The four-stage framework it supports — base, advance, top, decline — gives you a narrative for where a stock sits in its cycle, and the histogram makes relative performance visible at a glance.
The problem is that a chart looking clean is not the same as a chart generating edge. Communities built around Weinstein-style stage analysis have grown considerably, partly because the visual framework is legible and teachable. That cultural momentum is different from out-of-sample evidence. The question worth asking — does buying stocks with positive Mansfield RS, above a long moving average, actually beat buy-and-hold after costs? — rarely gets answered in the spaces where these charts are most popular.
What 660,005 Backtests Show
Our database covers 382 indicators tested on 903 assets across four timeframes — 1-Hour, 4-Hour, Daily, and Weekly — for 660,005 total out-of-sample backtests, each run with realistic transaction costs. Every combination is evaluated on one question: does it beat buy-and-hold by risk-adjusted return on this specific asset and timeframe?
Mansfield RS as a defined mechanical signal — buy when the histogram crosses above zero on the weekly while price is above a long moving average — is not among the top performers for any asset class in our data. For stocks specifically, the indicators that won on the most assets are: Fibonacci Pivots (22 assets), Projection Bands (16), Intraday Momentum Index (16), Camarilla Pivots (16), and Markov Regime (14).
Across all combinations, only 26% of indicator/asset pairs beat buy-and-hold. The median best Sharpe among winning combinations is 0.62 — real but modest. Relative-strength filtering has genuine value as a screening step to narrow your candidate universe, but that is a different claim from using Mansfield RS to generate entry and exit signals.
The Honest Verdict
Mansfield RS is a reasonable pre-filter. Stocks with sustained positive RS, rising prices, and a base breakout are a more coherent starting pool than a random list. If you are doing further technical or fundamental analysis anyway, stocks already leading the market are a defensible place to focus that work.
As a standalone signal generator, the evidence does not support treating positive Mansfield RS as a reliable edge. Weinstein's framework is coherent and teachable — that is why it has lasted. But longevity is not evidence, and nostalgia is not backtesting. The specific claim that positive Mansfield RS produces out-of-sample trading edge faces the same headwinds as most indicators in our data.
Everything described on this site reflects hypothetical backtests run on historical data with realistic transaction costs applied. Past performance does not predict future results. Nothing here is financial advice, and you should not make investment decisions based on backtest results alone.
Questions, answered
How is Mansfield Relative Strength different from RSI?
They measure different things. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) compares a stock's recent up-moves to its down-moves — it is an internal momentum indicator. Mansfield RS compares the stock's performance to an external benchmark, usually the S&P 500. RSI tells you whether a stock is overbought relative to its own recent history; Mansfield RS tells you whether it is leading or lagging the market.
Did you test Mansfield RS directly in your 660,005 backtests?
Not as a named standalone strategy. Our 382-indicator library targets mechanical, rules-based signals. Mansfield RS as typically applied involves qualitative judgment — reading stage transitions, visually confirming position above a long moving average — that resists clean rule encoding. What the data shows is that relative-strength-based approaches are not among the top performers in any asset class we tested.
Does Weinstein's four-stage framework hold up?
The stage descriptions — base, advance, top, decline — are a coherent way to categorize market phases, and they map loosely onto regime-detection methods that do show modest edge in systematic testing. The difficulty is that stage analysis as practiced is visual pattern recognition rather than a defined rule set, which makes rigorous out-of-sample testing difficult. Treat the framework as a useful mental model, not a proven system.
Is this financial advice?
No. All results here describe hypothetical backtests on historical data with realistic transaction costs. Past performance does not predict future results. Nothing on this site is investment or financial advice.
Every figure here comes from our own out-of-sample backtests, costs included — not a course or a guess. Educational information only — not investment advice. Hypothetical backtested results; past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves risk of loss.
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